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2023年第四季度資產類別更新-Rayliant季度評論
Feb 1, 2024 ... 在第三季度由於國債收益率飆升且投資者開始質疑經濟 ... 會導致美國經濟陷入硬著陸。美聯儲12月的會議 ... 預測未來的經濟衰退。面對如此黯淡的數據,美國 ...
Can Economists Predict Recessions? | St. Louis Fed
Sep 26, 2023 ... These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a ...
Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting - Federal Reserve ...
Jul 10, 2007 ... Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. At the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, ...
《國際經濟》通膨壓不住專家警告:聯準會恐急剎翻車
Feb 17, 2023 ... 【時報編譯柯婉琇綜合外電報導】近來發布的數據顯示儘管聯準會自去年來不間斷地升息,但美國的就業與經濟仍然強韌且通膨出現回溫跡象,知名經濟學家艾 ...
FRB: FEDS Notes: A Trillion Dollar Question: What Predicts Student ...
Oct 16, 2015 ... While income-driven repayment plans are a potentially promising way to alleviate student loan burdens for borrowers, efficient targeting of this ...
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 | Congressional ...
Feb 7, 2024 ... Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by ...
台灣股票講師李清華老師-台湾科技企业育成机制是什么
Jun 6, 2024 ... ... 對聯準會(Fed) 今年降息的預期繼續減弱,交易員將6 月降息的可能性降至50% 以下,高盛經濟學家也修正了他們的預測。美國兩年期公債殖利率僅較上周五收盤 ...
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. ... Frequently Asked Questions: Answers to some of the questions ... forecasts of economists ...
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve ...
Aug 25, 2023 ... Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead. Chair Jerome H. Powell. At “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy,” an economic policy symposium ...
第一季GDP成長不如預期!美股道瓊重挫375點
Apr 25, 2024 ... ... [NOWnews今日新聞]美國上季經濟增速大幅放緩,第一季GDP年增1.6%,遠低於經濟學家 ... 準會是否能夠很 ... 對於民眾質疑台灣缺電才會導致跳電事故頻傳,郭 ...
The Fed - What is the Summary of Economic Projections?
May 15, 2017 ... ... Questions. Have a question? Ask Us. What is the Summary of Economic Projections? Four times a year, the Federal Reserve releases a summary of ...
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 | Congressional ...
Feb 15, 2023 ... The Economy. To combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve sharply increased the target range for the federal funds rate in 2022. In CBO's ...
玩的教育學
兩次獲得諾貝爾獎的物理學家和化學家居里夫人(Marie ... 圖景中的兩位老師,新教師恩同比福西·奇龍安 ... 會質疑將玩的學習作為孩子教育方式的想. 法。我們聽 ...
Tealbook (formerly Greenbook) Data Sets
Altogether, the Philadelphia Fed's ... If you have any questions about the data, please ... forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia.
FRB: Confidence Interval Projections of the Federal Reserve ...
Jan 13, 2017 ... The accommodation provided by the LSAPs in turn provided critical ... Economic Projections (SEP) submitted in conjunction with the September 2016 ...
在關鍵就業報告發布之前美債殖利率走高| Anue鉅亨- 美股雷達
Apr 5, 2024 ... 根據《道瓊》民調,經濟學家預計3 月就業將增加20 萬個。 ... 就業數據將影響市場對聯準會何時開始降息的預期。 ... 然而,明尼亞波利斯Fed 行長卡什卡里周四( ...
Opinion | Is a Recession Near? Paul Krugman and Peter Coy Look ...
Sep 26, 2023 ... ... get inflation down, as we did after the inflation of the 1970s. As of last December, the Fed's economic projections said that inflation ...
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve - San Francisco Fed
Mar 5, 2018 ... As of the end of February, the difference between the ten-year and one-year Treasury yields stands at only 0.8%. The Federal Reserve, which ...
【美股新聞】本週市場焦點:非農就業報告及財報(6/3-6/7) | CMoney
Jun 3, 2024 ... ... 經濟狀況的走向。 ... 4月的就業報告顯示,雇主減緩了招聘,新增的175,000個職位低於經濟學家 ... 最近的通膨報告促使多位聯準會官員對利率削減的時間提出質疑 ...
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
... economic reports that have already been released. ... Do you want to ask a question ... It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of ...
Remarks on liquidity provision and on the economic outlook and ...
May 18, 2023 ... Looking forward, the Federal Reserve should also consider expanding the hours of operation for critical services like the discount window. Our ...
別再巴望Fed今年降息三次了!分析師:今年頂多降一次| 國際焦點 ...
Mar 30, 2024 ... ... ,就業成長紮實,股價漲勢凌厲,市場還期待聯準會(Fed)今年降息三次? ... 摩根大通全球市場策略師柯拉諾維奇質疑 ... 根據FactSet訪調經濟學家的共識預測, ...
New York Fed Staff Nowcast - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW ...
MEET THE ECONOMISTS. Staff Economists · Visiting Scholars · Resident Scholars. Contact Us. If you have questions about the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, submit ...
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve
Mar 5, 2018 ... As of the end of. February, the difference between the ten-year and one-year Treasury yields stands at only 0.8%. The Federal. Reserve, which ...
美國前財長警告:聯準會即將「升息」;美債殖利率回彈、抄底仔慘賠
Feb 17, 2024 ... 而剔除食品、能源的1 月核心PPI,則年增2%,月增0.5%,均超出經濟學家預期,創下2023 年1 月以來的最大漲幅。 ... 兩項聯準會 ... 提出了質疑。」至於聯準會 ...
Federal Deficits, Growing Debt, and the Economy in the Wake of ...
Mar 23, 2021 ... 26 For example, see Peter Coy, “Summers and Krugman Debate Stimulus. ... 28 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic ...
Opinion | Is a Recession Coming? Paul Krugman and Peter Coy ...
Oct 11, 2023 ... But the data points can't predict a recession in the United States. Or can they? The Opinion writers Peter Coy and Paul Krugman read the ...
Untitled
CFM students have gone to excellent universities and policy institutions, including. Columbia University, Duke University, and the Federal Reserve System.
Opinion | Our Inability to Predict Inflation Is an Embarrassment to ...
Apr 12, 2024 ... The Federal Reserve is so intent on getting ... Peter Coy is a writer for the Opinion ... Paul Krugman · Carlos Lozada · Tressie McMillan Cottom ...
Alan Greenspan - Wikipedia
Alan Greenspan (born March 6, 1926) is an American economist who served as the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006.
No, Donald Trump, Biden's Economy Is Not Like Weimar Germany's
May 10, 2024 ... You're reading the Peter Coy newsletter, for Times subscribers only. A veteran business and economics columnist unpacks the biggest headlines.
If You Won't Sacrifice Workers to Fight Inflation, You're Off the Op-Ed ...
Jan 25, 2023 ... Central to this debate has been the role of the Federal Reserve ... Yes, says Paul Krugman (New York Times, 8/23 ... Peter Coy, who has provided ...
Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The New York Times
Why higher rates are replacing inflation as the thing to hate. By Paul Krugman and Peter Coy. June 11, 2024.
The Sunny Side of Trump - Bloomberg
Nov 17, 2016 ... 14 New York Times op-ed, Paul Krugman, the ... government inducements, in the form of credits against investors' federal tax bills. ... Peter Coy is ...
Summary of Economic Projections, March 20, 2024
Mar 20, 2024 ... Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach,” Finance and Economics Discussion. Series 2017-020 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal ...
The Fed - Guide to the Summary of Economic Projections
Dec 11, 2020 ... Economic projections are collected from each member of the Board of Governors and each Federal Reserve Bank president four times a year, ...
Slower GDP Growth, Falling Inflation in 2024 Outlook
Nov 28, 2023 ... ... FOMC participants in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). ... Kliesen is a business economist and research officer at the Federal Reserve ...
Part 3: Summary of Economic Projections
Mar 18, 2024 ... The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or ...
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee ...
Dec 13, 2023 ... The attached tables and charts released on Wednesday summarize the economic projections made by Federal Open Market Committee participants ...
The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 Charts ...
Feb 21, 2023 ... After 2023, the Federal Reserve is projected ... Economic Analysis in late January ... Data sources: Congressional Budget Office; Federal Reserve ...
U.S. FOMC Meeting (June 11-12, 2024) - TD Economics
3 days ago ... The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal ... The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections was updated from March:.
The Fed Explained: What the Central Bank Does
the economy, its economic forecasts, and an analysis ... 4.1 statistical release, “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances,” is published every Thursday at https://www ...
The Neutral Rate of Interest - Dallasfed.org
Oct 24, 2018 ... ... factor among several indicators which influence my assessment of the stance of monetary policy. ... Federal Reserve economist Thomas Laubach and ...
The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve's ...
Jan 14, 2015 ... Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs. Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.. The ...
Speech by Chair Yellen on inflation, uncertainty, and monetary ...
Sep 26, 2017 ... Because changes in interest rates influence economic activity and inflation with a substantial lag, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ...
GlobalTrends_2040.pdf
economic influence of existing advanced econ- ... the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan, have ... Economic Activity Forecast to Tilt to Asia ...
How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions
Mar 15, 2022 ... ... Economic Outlook and regional assessments. Longer term, the war may fundamentally alter the global economic and geopolitical order should ...
How the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing Affects the Federal ...
Sep 8, 2022 ... ... Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... economic and budget projections ... Other factors may influence the ...

其中,對聯準會的預測提出質疑的兩位經濟學家分別是Peter Coy和Paul Krugman。根據所引用的來源 26,Paul Krugman在最近的一篇觀點文章中,強調了對於聯準會通脹控制政策的懷疑。他指出,與上世紀70年代通脹後的情況相似,現在的通脹問題需要一定的時間和政策來解決。同時,Peter Coy也表達了對於聯準會預測的質疑,認為聯準會過去對通脹以及經濟走向的預測可能存在偏差。

這些經濟學家的質疑主要圍繞著通脹、聯準會的政策舉措以及未來經濟走向。他們的觀點提供了不同角度的分析,有助於投資者和政策制定者更全面地了解目前經濟狀況及可能的發展趨勢。因此,在評估未來投資策略或政策制定時,考慮這些經濟學家的看法是非常重要的。

What were the doubts raised by Paul Krugman and Peter Coy regarding the Federal Reserve's predictions?

Paul Krugman and Peter Coy have expressed skepticism about the Federal Reserve's predictions in the past. Krugman, a renowned economist and columnist for The New York Times, has been critical of the Federal Reserve's approach to economic challenges. In an article co-authored with Peter Coy, they discussed the shift in focus from inflation to higher rates as a point of concern 34. Krugman has also debated the effectiveness of stimulus measures proposed by economists like Larry Summers 27.

Peter Coy, a writer for The New York Times, has raised doubts about the Fed's ability to accurately predict economic outcomes. In a joint opinion piece with Krugman, they questioned whether data points could accurately forecast a recession in the United States 28. Coy has also highlighted the challenge of predicting inflation, criticizing the Federal Reserve's attempts to manage economic fluctuations 30.

Furthermore, in another article, Coy discussed the debate surrounding the role of the Federal Reserve in addressing inflation and its potential impact on workers 33. These instances demonstrate that both Krugman and Coy have been actively engaging in discussions and debates regarding the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and policies.

How do economists analyze the economic projections provided by the Federal Reserve?

經濟學家對聯準會的經濟預測提出質疑的其中兩位包括:

  1. Laurence Ball:Laurence Ball 是一位經濟學家,他對聯準會的預測提出了質疑和批評。他的研究主要圍繞通脹、失業和貨幣政策等領域,並在此背景下分析和評估聯準會的經濟預測。透過他的觀點,他可能根據他的經濟模型和研究結果來挑戰聯準會對未來經濟走向的預測 36 41

  2. Nouriel Roubini:Nouriel Roubini 是另一位對聯準會經濟預測持批判態度的經濟學家。他以他的經濟專業知識和對全球經濟趨勢的獨到見解而聞名。他可能透過對資本市場、全球經濟形勢和政策措施等方面的分析,提出對聯準會預測的異議和質疑 41

對於這兩位經濟學家及其觀點,他們可能著重於聯準會對經濟走向的方法論、假設以及是否考慮到某些重要因素等方面進行批評。他們的質疑有助於提高對聯準會經濟預測的全面性和準確性。

What factors influence economists' assessments of the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts?

兩位經濟學家對聯準會的預測提出質疑分別是 Thomas Laubach 和 Federal Reserve Bank of New York。這兩位經濟學家對於聯準會所做出的經濟預測提出了挑戰,認為這些預測可能受到多種因素的影響而產生偏差。

根據 Federal Reserve 提供的資料 43,《Factors Affecting Reserve Balances》每週發布的統計數據會影響經濟學家對聯準會的經濟預測。這些數據可能包括貨幣政策、利率、貨幣供應量等方面的變動,進而影響經濟走向。Thomas Laubach 在其研究中 44指出,中性利率是其評估貨幣政策立場的重要指標之一,同時也指出各種因素對其評估結果產生了影響。

另外,來自 Federal Reserve Board 的一項研究 45提到,財政和經濟研究系列報告探討了聯準會行動對整體經濟的影響,進一步說明了聯準會的政策舉措如何影響預測結果。因此,經濟學家對聯準會的預測提出質疑時,可能會參考各種貨幣政策、利率、債務水平等因素,以及聯準會過去的政策舉措和其它經濟指標來進行

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