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【第733期】美國通膨數據高於市場預期疊加地緣政治風險升溫促市場 ...
Apr 15, 2024 ... 重點摘要. 1. 中東地緣衝突升溫惟基本情境評估對金融市場影響料有限 2. 通膨再度超乎市場預期市場認為降息延至6月後 3. CPI公布後機構改變降息觀點 ...
The Fed - What is inflation and how does the Federal Reserve ...
Sep 9, 2016 ... Federal Reserve policymakers evaluate changes in inflation by monitoring several different price indexes. A price index measures changes in the ...
Fed新鷹王表示,根據最近通膨數據,減少或推遲降息是合適的
Mar 27, 2024 ... ... 通膨數據,證實Fed ... Fed評估經濟表現提供空間。推遲開始降息的時間 ... 然而,今年意外強勁的通膨使人們對Fed預測能否成真產生疑問。Fed官員正等待觀察近期 ...
How does the government measure inflation? | Brookings
Jun 28, 2021 ... The Fed uses the PCE price index as its main measure of inflation. Its long-run target for inflation is for the PCE price index to increase at ...
Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate.
Fed會議結果:5月CPI數據降溫提振信心Fed上修點陣圖未驚退市場 ...
2 days ago ... 此外亦上修今/明年之PCE及核心PCE年比預估,惟鮑威爾表示Fed對 ... 觀察Fed公布之政策利率點陣圖,2024年內之降息 ... 觀察5月美國CPI數據降幅大於市場預期, ...
FRB: What is inflation and how does the Federal Reserve measure it?
Jul 25, 2011 ... Federal Reserve policymakers evaluate changes in inflation by monitoring several different price indexes. A price index measures changes in the ...
The Fed - Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 ...
Aug 27, 2020 ... In turn, there would be less room to cut interest rates to boost employment during an economic downturn. Evidence from around the world suggests ...
觀察經濟數據評估Fed政策前景美債殖利率橫盤整理
Apr 26, 2023 ... ... 通膨。 與此同時,數據則引發人們對經濟衰退的擔憂,包括上周的費城Fed 製造業指數,該指數降幅遠大於預期。 更多鉅亨報導 •英國通膨率高於預期Fed ...
CPI Vs. PCE Inflation: Choosing a Standard Measure | St. Louis Fed
Two different price indexes are popular for measuring inflation: the consumer price index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the personal ...
Why the Fed Targets a 2 Percent Inflation Rate | St. Louis Fed
Jan 16, 2019 ... The FOMC targets an inflation rate of 2 percent. What does it mean to have an inflation target? And why target a positive number and not ...
FOMC會議結果:將耐心待通膨回落正面看待有助降低市場波動- 玉山 ...
May 2, 2024 ... Fed將持續評估往後的數據以調整貨幣政策;在對 ... 通膨看法|通膨需更長時間回落通膨仍然過高,且近期 ... 此外,面對近期屢高於預期的通膨數據,觀察Fed ...
Inflation data this week could help determine Fed's timetable for rate ...
4 days ago ... After Federal Reserve officials meet this week, a statement they will issue may suggest that they've seen meaningful progress on inflation ...
CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of ...
台灣經濟研究院全球資訊網
Feb 7, 2024 ... 1月份聯準會(Fed)的聯邦公開 ... 評估未來的數據、不斷變化的前景和風險平衡。委員會認為,在對通膨 ... 觀察幾個月的數據,才能做出降息決定。在3月20 ...
Pandemic Prices: Assessing Inflation in the Months and Years ...
Apr 12, 2021 ... ... inflation that is consistent with recent history as well as the Federal Reserve's target. ... The data in the figure are from CEA's analysis based ...
Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists
Nontechnical background reading: Noneconomists will find the following article from the Philadelphia Fed's Business Review more helpful, since it requires less ...
Fed降息生變?全球緊盯美CPI 這個關鍵數據多頭喊「逢低買進 ...
Mar 12, 2024 ... 12日出爐的2月CPI數據將檢驗那種說法,結果可能撼動市場對聯準會(Fed)利率路徑的預期,進而對美股年初迄今的漲勢形成重大考驗。 2月核心CPI攸關美股是否 ...
Inflation data this week could help determine Fed's plan for possible ...
4 days ago ... Chair Jerome Powell will likely reiterate that Fed officials need further confidence that inflation is returning to 2% before they would ...
Household Debt and Credit Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ...
Center for Microeconomic Data ... Total household debt rose by $184 billion to reach $17.69 trillion, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt ...
如何評估目前的十年債殖利率是否合理? | MacroMicro 財經M平方
... 通膨預估值的Core CPI + 實質GDP 年增率及黃點西德州原油價格變動年增率兩者反白, 讓我們更能輕易地觀察 ... 對景氣與通膨預估值間的關係. 從80年代以來, 美國 ... 網站內提供 ...
Median CPI
The median CPI is a measure of inflation computed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ... The Fed does ... Inflation 101 · Consumer Price Data. Related ...
Inflation-Induced Valuation Errors in the Stock Market - San ...
Oct 29, 2004 ... ... rates—a behavioral trait that would lead to inflation-induced valuation errors. ... Fed model,” but ... The observation that real valuation ratios ...
五、國際間央行為何視2%通膨率目標為主流信仰? - 1989 年12 月
不過,時任Fed 理事Janet Yellen 認為,些許的通膨率有助於促進經濟運轉,能給予央行更. 多彈性以因應經濟衰退。 -該場FOMC 會議召開時,美國的CPI 年增率為3%;當時會上 ...
What is inflation, and how does the Fed measure it? | Invesco US
Breakeven rates are a common measure of financial market inflation expectations. They are calculated by subtracting the yield on a nominal Treasury security ...
Inflation Expectations
... financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly ... assessment of the risk of unexpected changes ... The Cleveland Fed's inflation model is based on data ...
The Fed - September 20, 2023: FOMC Projections materials ...
Sep 20, 2023 ... Diffusion indexes of participants' uncertainty assessments. Diffusion index. Make Full Screen. SEP, Change in real GDP, Unemployment rate, PCE ...
Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ...
Center for Microeconomic Data ... Perceptions about households' current financial situations improved, with more respondents reporting being better off than a ...
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
While BEA regularly publishes statistics on all U.S. services trade, the profile focuses on a subset of services referred to in the article as “selected ...
An Empirical Assessment of the Relationships Among Inflation and ...
3 Today, though, long-run inflation expectations in the model are measured with survey data.4 Long-run expectations also play a key role in inflation dynamics ...
Federal Reserve Focuses Monetary Policy on Fighting Inflation ...
Financial perspectives /. Market news /. Federal Reserve ... “Despite its progress since early 2022, current inflation is still above the Fed's target rate,” says ...
Fed holds rates steady, upgrades assessment of economic growth
Nov 1, 2023 ... In a widely expected move, the Fed's rate-setting group unanimously agreed to hold the key federal funds rate in a target range between 5.25%- ...
Wall St Week Ahead US inflation data to test market's bets on future ...
Apr 7, 2023 ... That view could gain support if next week's inflation reading shows a strong rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over ...
The Fed - How does the Federal Reserve affect inflation and ...
Aug 27, 2020 ... The primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to conduct monetary policy is the federal funds rate—the rate that banks pay for overnight borrowing ...
The Fed - Monetary Policy: Monetary Policy Report (Branch)
Mar 1, 2024 ... Monetary Policy Report · Beige Book ... influence of idiosyncratic or temporary ... The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined ...
Inflation 101: Why Does the Fed Care about Inflation?
Simple Monetary Policy Rules · Systemic Risk ... impact our communities, serving financial institutions ... The Federal Reserve sees a rate of inflation of 2 ...
The Great Inflation | Federal Reserve History
“Demand-pull” inflation was the direct influence of macroeconomic policy, and monetary policy in particular. It resulted from policies that produced a level of ...
The impact of Federal Reserve policy on the Fed's financial ...
Oct 18, 2023 ... ... inflation, Fed rates,. 11 min read. Print. Sections. The Fed's financial conditions index; Mapping monetary policy to financial conditions ...
New US inflation data 'along the lines' of what Fed wants, Powell ...
Mar 29, 2024 ... Reuters Impact · Legal · Government · Legal ... rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024.... ... Covers the U.S. Federal Reserve, monetary ...
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033 | Congressional ...
Feb 15, 2023 ... The Economy. To combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve sharply increased the target range for the federal funds rate in 2022. In CBO's ...
Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - San Francisco Fed
Mar 4, 2024 ... ... affect economic activity. Evidence from event studies with high-frequency data supports the view that monetary policy is a key driver of ...
Long and Variable Lags in Monetary Policy | St. Louis Fed
May 24, 2023 ... It can take changes in interest rates some time to affect the macroeconomy (the lag is long), and that time can differ unpredictably across ...
Data and Indicators - San Francisco Fed
The Economic Research Department provides recurring updates of specific data sets related to its research. Topics include inflation, excess savings,
Inflation Nowcasting
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland calculations based on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information ...
Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation - San Francisco Fed
Research & Insights/Data & Indicators. Supply- and ... The data on this page divide inflation rates into ... a particular month compare to actual values for that ...
Economic Indicators Calendar - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW ...
Provides the date and time of key economic data releases (all Eastern Time). New York Fed content is available at or shortly after the scheduled times ...
Labor Market Conditions Indicators - Federal Reserve Bank of ...
The LMCI indicators are displayed as the dark blue and light blue lines. Hover or click on interactive chart lines to read specific data. Click on the indicator ...
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) - FEDERAL ...
Our index integrates transportation cost data and manufacturing indicators to provide a gauge of global supply chain conditions.
Equitable Growth Indicators (EGIs) - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ...
The national EGIs present disparities in inflation, earnings (real and nominal), employment, spending (real and nominal), and wealth. The regional EGIs ...
The Fed - A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation
Jul 8, 2020 ... We find that CWI rose faster than the headline growth rates of AHE of production and nonsupervisory workers from 2014 to 2018. Sector-specific ...

要評估美聯儲對通膨數據的觀察,關鍵在於了解其針對通膨採取的政策和行動。美聯儲利用不同的價格指數來評估通膨變化,如消費者價格指數(CPI) 15 和個人消費支出價格指數(PCE) 11。他們的目標是通膨率維持在2%水平 12。另外,美聯儲關注通膨數據的變化,以決定是否需要調整利率政策,進而影響經濟運行。有時,當通膨數據高於市場預期時,市場預期降息的時間可能會推遲 4

此外,觀察美聯儲公布的政策利率點陣圖可以了解未來的降息預期 7。如果通膨數據持續高於預期,可能會促使美聯儲重新評估降息時機 13。同時,銀行間的Breakeven rates也是評估金融市場對通膨預期的常見指標 26

因此,要評估美聯儲對通膨數據的觀察,需要關注其對通膨的政策立場、利率調整以及市場對未來通膨預期的變化。這些因素將有助於瞭解美聯儲對經濟狀況和通膨走勢的評估。

美國聯邦儲備系統(Fed)如何評估通膨數據?

美國聯邦儲備系統(Fed)評估通膨數據時,通常會採取多方面的方法和數據來進行觀察和分析。

首先,Fed會關注市場上的通膨預期。這可以通過不同機構和機構的調查數據來確定,例如克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行的通膨預期模型 27。此外,紐約聯邦儲備銀行的消費者期望調查 29也可以提供有價值的數據。

第二,Fed會參考經濟增長、失業率以及個人消費支出(PCE)等數據,這些數據對通膨形勢有著直接影響。例如,Fed在2023年9月的FOMC預測材料中就包含了與通膨相關的數據 28

此外,Fed還會密切關注市場對未來通膨走勢的預期,這包括觀察市場對未來Fed政策的期望反應。例如,它可能考慮美國通膨數據對市場未來對於Fed寬鬆政策的預期是否產生影響 34

總的來說,美國聯邦儲備系統通過綜合考慮各種數據和市場預期來評估通膨數據,從而制定適當的貨幣政策以應對不同的通膨情況。

通膨數據如何影響美國聯邦儲備系統(Fed)的政策制定?

通膨數據對美國聯邦儲備系統(Fed)的政策制定具有重要的影響。Fed通常將通膨視為衡量經濟健康的重要指標之一。當通膨率偏離其目標(通常為2%)時,Fed可能會調整其貨幣政策以應對通膨壓力。

根據克里夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行的資料,Fed對通膨非常關注,並希望通膨率保持在2%左右。當通膨偏離這一目標時,Fed將通過貨幣政策工具,如利率的調整,來影響經濟活動和通膨走勢 37。此外,聯邦儲備系統還通過監管金融機構、提供貨幣流通和控制利率等手段,以應對通膨帶來的挑戰 35

當通膨數據顯示出通膨率持續偏高時,Fed可能會採取收緊貨幣政策的措施,例如提高利率,以抑制通膨水平。相反,當通膨率過低或經濟面臨衰退風險時,Fed可能會審慎降低利率或實施量化寬鬆政策。

綜合來看,通膨數據是Fed在制定貨幣政策和維護經濟穩定上不可忽視的重要因素,因此密切關注通膨數據的變化對於評估Fed的政策走向至關重要。Fed對通膨的觀察和反應將對經濟活動和市場產生深遠影響。

美國聯邦儲備系統(Fed)對通膨數據有哪些具體觀察指標?

美國聯邦儲備系統(Fed)利用多種特定數據和指標來評估通膨情況。其中一些觀察指標包括:

  • 鱼雷及需求驱动个人消费支出(PCE)通胀:通胀数据通常根据供应和需求因素分为不同类别,以便更好地了解通胀率 46

  • 公共薪资膨胀率:美国联邦储备系统通过一个名为“Common Wage Inflation(CWI)”指标来评估普通劳动人口的收入增长。

  • 供应链压力指数(GSCPI):该指数综合了运输成本数据和制造业指标,提供了全球供应链状况的重要衡量标准 49

  • 劳动力市场状况指标:为了更好了解劳动力市场的状况,联邦储备系统使用一些指标,如工作市场状况指数(LMCI) 48

  • 价格指数预测:有关通货膨胀率的即时预测对决策至关重要,因此克利夫兰联邦储备银行提供了一个实时通货膨胀预测 45

以上指标和数据集有助于Fed深入了解通货膨胀的各方面,从而制定更精准的货币政策。通过密切关注这些指标的变化,Fed可以更好地应对通货膨胀带来的挑战,确保经济保持稳定和可持续增长。

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